One-Hit Wonders in Classical Music: Evidence and an Explanation for an Early Career Peak

Anecdotes suggest one-hit wonders peak early in their careers, but no quantitative investigation has focused on this issue in lifespan creativity. Here, recording count criteria were used to define samples of 89 one-hit and 89 “multi-hit” classical composers. One-hit composers peaked reliably earlier than their multi-hit counterparts, and this effect was stronger between more prototypical one-hit versus multi-hit composers. Lifespan, historical year, and age at expertise acquisition onset do not explain the effect. However, compared to multi-hit composers, one-hit composers favor easily elaborated, small-scale works like songs, which intrinsically peak earlier than other genres. The pattern of career landmarks across five musical genres, using a sample of 394 composers, supports this interpretation. Finally, onehit composers’ operas are more highlight-dominated than those of multi-hit composers. Overall, results suggest that chance factors play larger roles in the success of one-hit composers than multi-hit composers.